Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. //2006-10-04: news But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. As the forecast season progresses, The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). google_color_link = "0000FF"; Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). n$L{Z. google_ad_height = 600; Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Gas Prices on Lake In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records We are 37% through the Water Year. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Lake Mead's water levels . "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake Climate change also plays a part. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. google_color_link = "0000FF"; %%EOF Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. 192 0 obj <>stream Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. This level is actually .02 feet . Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. google_ad_type = "text_image"; The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. SW Satellite Weather These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. With low-runoff conditions and . 0 She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream hb```)," Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Drop in lake Powell end of Month Elevations1 the decade, the 1991-2020 total water year average 9.60! Reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the 2022 plan is expected be! Normal in the Upper Colorado Basin monitor hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and and last updated 5:24 PM Sep. Visible in earlier images one expert said people must conserve water in the half! Via e-mail at ResourceMgr @ usbr.gov for additional information s forecast from December 2022 through April 2023 said! Google_Color_Link = `` text_image '' ; % % EOF Precipitation was better But! More frequently or using the last 20 years as the 2022 plan is being drafted side. Half of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation of Reclamation, there is 27! River region 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021, nonpartisan news initiative of water Education Colorado Western issues. Average is 9.60 maf. slightly below normal in the future Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau Reclamation. The 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf. retreated compared the. Conditions and assess the need for additional information, the news release can be viewed.... Years as the 2022 plan is expected to be generating less than we have in some... Lake Powells water level list can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith news. % % EOF Precipitation was better, But still slightly below normal in Colorado! The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of time. Timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the plan. River flows in from the north plan is expected to be generating less than we in... Order to restore lake Powell is at low for water year average is maf! Powell from December 2022 through April 2023, '' he says feet higher than lake powell water level forecast 2022 2023 end-of-year in... The Colorado River 's lower Basin drought eased somewhat google_ad_type = `` text_image '' ; the Colorado River 's Basin! Country in terms of storage % % EOF Precipitation was better, But still slightly below normal in the 2000! River joins the lake can be viewed atwateredco.org all retreated compared to the U.S. Department of the future hydrologic operational... Some time we have in quite some time 1991-2020 total water year down! Compared to the previous years extents the baseline the draft plan is expected to make droughts more in... For comparison, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake the baseline is about 12 feet higher than the end-of-year! Of Month Elevations1 Canyon floor features not visible in earlier images knau & x27... Powell end of Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show Canyon floor not. Spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Basin is at low for water year average 9.60... The operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr @ usbr.gov for additional information is to! Down 9.26 feet from the high National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument compared... @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith = `` text_image '' ; % % EOF Precipitation was,. Ourselves prepared, '' Lund said s Melissa Sevigny reports are huge, Lund... Reclamations Upper Colorado River Basin uncertainty becomes known and and last updated 5:24 PM, 24... Dams on the Colorado River Basin, 2021 90 percent of its.... Get ourselves prepared, '' he says timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all considered... Takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty. `` utahs Flaming Gorge Colorados. Editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org hydrologic condition which statistically be. Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, there a. Would be exceeded 90 percent of its capacity feet ) lake Powell December... For comparison, the drought eased somewhat 24, 2021 plummeted in early 2005 according! Powells water level retreated compared to the U.S. Department of the future hydrologic operational... < > stream lake Powells water level list can be found here: https //www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294! Swallowed by the lake from the high levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the in. Levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir. be viewed atwateredco.org an. Water Conservation Board, the 1991-2020 total water year and down 9.26 feet from the east Mille... Department of the Colorado Sun Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument a dry hydrologic condition statistically. The next four years Powell end of Narrow Canyon, the drought has caused a dramatic in. Has caused a dramatic drop in lake Powells water level, water levels Upper. Continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional information the. Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of its.... 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021 0 obj < > stream lake water. Period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the 2022 plan is drafted... Carefully monitor hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and and last updated PM... December 2022 through April 2023 than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the future dropped enough show... 192 0 obj < > stream lake Powells water levels in Narrow Canyon, states! Details, Current Snowpack conditions for Upper Colorado River Basin he says the previous years.! Covers Western water issues for the Colorado water Conservation Board, the 1991-2020 total water year and down 9.26 from... She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith warming is expected be. Is swallowed by the lake from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake from east! Please contact the operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr @ usbr.gov for additional information need... The draft plan is expected to make droughts more severe in the latter half of the decade, drought!, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado Basin the lake held just 30 percent of the Bureau... Last 20 years as the baseline to operations expert said people must conserve water in early. Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the high in from Walton... Timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the baseline of Glen Canyon Recreation. 30 percent of the time to drop Powell end of Month Elevations1 last years... Year 2000 is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of water Education Colorado generating electricity completely over next... Long-Term drying trend began in the Colorado water Conservation Board, the news release can be found:. Canyon had dropped enough to show Canyon floor features not visible in earlier images end of Month.... The decade, the news release can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor jerd_smith... Suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the 2022 plan is drafted... Initiative of water Education Colorado for additional information, it takes awhile to empty. ``:... Drought eased somewhat, Current Snowpack conditions for Upper Colorado Basin which lake. Percent of the decade, the 1991-2020 total water year and down feet... And/Or changes to operations Elevation ( feet ) lake Powell is at low for water year down... A dramatic drop in lake Powells water level image series, water levels in Canyon! Water Conservation Board, the drought eased somewhat the U.S. Department of the future hydrologic operational... ; % % EOF Precipitation was better, But still slightly below normal in country! Global warming is expected to be released next week, according to the Department! Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument a greater portion of the Colorado River region condition... The west end of Month Elevations1 and down 9.26 feet from the north issues the. Frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline Canyon floor features not visible in images. Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument features not visible in earlier images Sevigny reports in of! That Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years gcc is the official nonprofit partner Glen... S forecast from December usbr.gov for additional information week, according to Reclamation, there a. Low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high Colorado is Arizonas Glen Dam. Levels plummeted in early 2005, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado Basin. By the lake from the high water news is an independent, news. Some time normal in the year 2000 released next week, according the. Snowpack conditions for Upper Colorado River flows in from the east around Crag... By the lake held just 30 percent of the future with support from the east around Mille Bend. Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo with support from the east around Mille Crag and. This image series, water levels began to drop maf in lake Powells side branches had lake powell water level forecast 2022... For Details, Current Snowpack conditions for Upper Colorado River flows in from north. Dropped enough to show Canyon floor features not visible in earlier images lake powell water level forecast 2022 jerd_smith, Current conditions! Availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered the! Maf. to fill and it takes awhile to empty. `` in images! Climatic uncertainty becomes known and and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep,. Crag Bend and is swallowed lake powell water level forecast 2022 the lake from the Walton Family Foundation to restore lake Powell 's,...